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October 12, 2012
Las Vegas Oddsmaker Explains Why He Predicts Romney Landslide
By Wayne Allyn Root
On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I’ve made my living for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180 pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into the Las Vegas Walk of Stars (along with Vegas legends such as Elvis, Frank Sinatra, Wayne Newton, Dean Martin, Liberace, and Sammy Davis Jr).
But it’s my political predictions that have turned heads in the national media.
In November of 2004, only days before the Presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax called it the most accurate prediction of the 2004 Presidential election.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP Presidential nomination and go on to win the Presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders- Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for President. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to May 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP Presidential, but trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide here at TownHall.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points right here at TownHall. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in every poll, especially the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney victory. Why? Based on pure gut instincts. This election is Reagan/Carter all over again. And I always believed the results would be the same: a Reagan-like landslide.
Today I’m making it official:
Mitt Romney will win the Presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. With an outside shot at 10 points. Electorally it won’t be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say Romney even wins one or two Democratic "safe states" like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey. On election night, Democrats will be in shock and mourning as the results come in.
In the days before the first Presidential debate, polls showed Romney trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls were always wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama. The turnout on November 6th will look nothing like 4 years ago.
Here are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on election day:
· The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards Obama. In the West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or leading in recent polls. In pro union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country mile. But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney competitive in Illinois- Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad signs for Obama.
· In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of Governorships. Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential elections are always steered in each state by the Governor- the most powerful force in state politics.
· After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof of the failure of Democrat ideas?
· Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money, although there is a major question if it’s coming from illegal foreign contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.
· Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian President in U.S. history. How motivated are Christians? Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A a few weeks ago? I predict you’ll see those same lines on election day. It’s time to stand up to a man destroying our values, killing jobs, fatally damaging our economy, and abandoning Israel. Christians have had enough of turning the other cheek.
· Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many states- particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like 2008.
Which brings up another important question. What kind of political party relies on felons and illegals to win elections? The Democratic Party of Barack Obama.
· The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record numbers in 2009. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.
I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.
. Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews…the vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time around it’s about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That’s enough of a change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel U.S. Senator in Ohio).
· Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day- just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.
This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.
I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.
And If I’m wrong- God help The United States of America.
Wayne Allyn Root
Wayne Allyn Root (W.A.R) is a former Presidential candidate, the 2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a Tea Party favorite.
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While walking down the street one day a female head of state is tragically hit by a truck and dies. Her soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.
“Welcome to Heaven,” says St. Peter. “Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we’re not sure what to do with you.”
“No problem, just let me in,” says the lady.
“Well, I’d like to but I have orders from higher up. What we’ll do is have you spend one day in Hell and one in Heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.”
“Really, I’ve made up my mind. I want to be in Heaven,” says the head of state.
“I’m sorry but we have our rules.” And with that, St. Peter escorts her to the elevator and she goes down, down, down to Hell. The doors open and she finds herself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a club and standing in front of it are all her friends and other politicians who had worked with her, everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet her, hug her, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at expense of the people.
They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster and caviar. Also present is the Devil, who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes.
They are having such a good time that, before she realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives her a big hug and waves while the elevator rises. The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on Heaven where St. Peter is waiting for her.
“Now it’s time to visit Heaven.” So 24 hours pass with the head of state joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before she realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.
“Well then, you’ve spent a day in Hell and another in Heaven. Now choose your eternity.”
She reflects for a minute, then the head of state answers: “Well, I would never have said it; I mean Heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in Hell.”
So Saint Peter escorts her to the elevator and she goes down, down, down to Hell. Now the doors of the elevator open and she is in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. She sees all her friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags. The Devil comes over to her and lays his arm on her neck.
“I don’t understand,” stammers the head of state. “Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and club and we ate lobster and caviar and danced and had a great time. Now all there is a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable.”
The Devil looks at her, smiles and says, “Yesterday we were campaigning. Today you voted for us!”
A man was passing a small courtyard and heard voices murmuring. He went in and saw an altar with a large zero in the middle and a banner that said “NIL.”
White-robed people were kneeling before the altar chanting hymns to The Great Nullity and The Blessed Emptiness.
The man turned to a white-robed observer beside him and asked, “Is Nothing Sacred?”
JAPANESE ERROR MESSAGES for MICROSOFT
In Japan, they have replaced the impersonal and unhelpful Microsoft error messages with their own Japanese haiku poetry, each only 17 syllables, 5 syllables in the first line, 7 in the second, 5 in the third…
A file that big?
It might be very useful.
But now it is gone.
The Web site you seek
Can not be located but
Countless more exist.
Chaos reigns within.
Reflect, repent, and reboot.
Order shall return.
Close all that you have worked on.
You ask far too much.
Windows NT crashed.
I am the Blue Screen of Death.
No one hears your screams.
Yesterday it worked.
Today it is not working.
Windows is like that.
First snow, then silence.
This thousand dollar screen dies
With searching comes loss
And the presence of absence:
“My Novel” not found.
The Tao that is seen
Is not the true Tao-until
You bring fresh toner.
Stay the patient course.
Of little worth is your ire.
The network is down.
A crash reduces
Your expensive computer
To a simple stone.
Three things are certain:
Death, taxes, and lost data.
Guess which has occurred.
You step in the stream,
But the water has moved on.
This page is not here.
Out of memory.
We wish to hold the whole sky,
But we never will.
Having been erased,
The document you’re seeking
Must now be retyped.
All shortcuts have disappeared.
Screen. Mind. Both are blank.
You know you are living in 2011 when…
1. You accidentally enter your password on the microwave.
2. You haven’t played solitaire with real cards in years.
3. You have a list of 15 phone numbers to reach your family of three. 4. You e-mail/page your friend who works at the desk next to you. 5. Your reason for not staying in touch with friends is that they do not have e-mail addresses.
6. When you go home after a long day at work you still answer the phone in a business manner.
7. When you make phone calls from home, you accidentally do “9” to get an outside line.
8. You’ve sat at the same desk for four years and worked for three different companies.
10. Your resume is on a disk in your pocket.
11. Your biggest loss from a system crash was when you lost all of your best jokes.
12. Your boss doesn’t have the ability to do your job.
13. Contractors out number permanent staff and are more likely to get long-service awards.
14. Board members salaries are higher than all the Third World countries’ annual budgets combined.
15. Interviewees, despite not having the relevant knowledge or experience, terminate the interview when told of the starting salary.
16. Free food left over from meetings is your staple diet.
17. Your boss gets a brand-new state-of-the-art laptop with all the latest features, but you have time to go for lunch while yours boots up. 18. Being sick is defined as you can’t walk or you’re in hospital. 20. There’s no money in the budget for the five permanent staff your department desperately needs, but they can afford four full-time management consultants advising your boss’s boss on strategy.
21. Your relatives and family describe your job as “works with computers”. AND THE CLINCHERS ARE…
22. You read this entire list, and kept nodding and smiling. 23. As you read this list, you think about forwarding it to your “friends” 24. You got this email from a friend that never talks to you any more, except to send you jokes from the net.
25. You are too busy to notice there was no 9 & 19
A woman brought a very limp parrot into a Veterinary hospital. As she lay her pet on the table, the vet pulled out his stethoscope and listened to the bird’s chest. After a moment or two, the Vet shook his head sadly and said, “I’m so sorry, Polly has passed away.”
The distressed owner wailed, “Are you sure? I mean, you haven’t done any testing on him or anything. He might just be in a coma or something.”
The vet rolled his eyes, shrugged, turned and left the room returning a few moments later with beautiful black Labrador. As the bird’s owner looked on in amazement, the dog stood on his hind legs, pu!t his front paws on the examination table and sniffed the dead parrot from top to bottom. He then looked at the vet with sad eyes and shook his head.
The vet led the dog out but returned a few moments later with a cat. The cat jumped up and also sniffed delicately at the ex-bird. The cat sat back, shook its head, meowed and ran out of the room.
The vet looked at the
woman and said, “I’m sorry; but like I said, your parrot is most definitely, 100% certifiably …dead.”
He then turned to his computer terminal, hit a few keys and produced a bill which he handed to the woman. The parrot’s owner, still in shock, took the bill. “$150!” she cried. “$150 just to tell me my bird is dead?!”
The vet shrugged. “If you’d taken my word for it, the bill would only! have been $20, but with the Lab Report and the Cat Scan……. What did you expect??”
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